For those keeping score, there have been seven special elections for U.S. House seats since the president's inauguration 16 months ago: NY20, IL5, CA32, CA10, NY23, FL19, and PA12. Democrats have won all seven.
19 May 2010
Republican Wave?
We keep hearing how the Republicans are going to make a strong showing this fall and maybe even take control of the house, but we need to remember:
Quote of the Day
Only two things are infinite, the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the former.- Albert Einstein
Tidbits
Two items of economic news of interest - along the lines of my earlier post:
1. Mortgage applications are at a 13-year low. The number of people buying homes plunged after the expiration of the home purchase tax credit.
2. Nearly 15% of all mortgages across the country were either delinquent or in foreclosure.
It ain't over yet.
1. Mortgage applications are at a 13-year low. The number of people buying homes plunged after the expiration of the home purchase tax credit.
2. Nearly 15% of all mortgages across the country were either delinquent or in foreclosure.
It ain't over yet.
18 May 2010
Who's Really Being Bailed Out
It's always important to remember this when these things occur:
They aren't bailing out Greece, they're bailing out the people who lent them money.- Atrios
Mortgage Interest Deduction
Felix Salmon thinks it should be repealed - or at least phased out.
As a policy matter, I have never really understood the mortgage interest deduction, because it always seemed to me that any tax benefit that gave a greater benefit to the well-off than the poor made no sense.
But then again, I'm a purist on these things. With the possible exception of "sin taxes," I've never been much for social engineering by tax deduction or tax credit. It's not that I'm against social engineering per se, I just don't think changing the Internal Revenue Code is the way to do it.
If you're going to subsidize something, do it directly by giving money to the particular person you are subsidizing. There really is no difference between giving a person a tax credit and giving the same person a cash subsidy. But politicians can call the former a "tax cut" which is good, and the later "social spending " which is bad. Of course, the fact that you get the money simply by claiming on your tax return encourages cheating, since most returns are not audited, and people will often claim deductions or credits they are not entitled to. This results in a lot more money going out the door than direct subsidies ever would.
As a policy matter, I have never really understood the mortgage interest deduction, because it always seemed to me that any tax benefit that gave a greater benefit to the well-off than the poor made no sense.
But then again, I'm a purist on these things. With the possible exception of "sin taxes," I've never been much for social engineering by tax deduction or tax credit. It's not that I'm against social engineering per se, I just don't think changing the Internal Revenue Code is the way to do it.
If you're going to subsidize something, do it directly by giving money to the particular person you are subsidizing. There really is no difference between giving a person a tax credit and giving the same person a cash subsidy. But politicians can call the former a "tax cut" which is good, and the later "social spending " which is bad. Of course, the fact that you get the money simply by claiming on your tax return encourages cheating, since most returns are not audited, and people will often claim deductions or credits they are not entitled to. This results in a lot more money going out the door than direct subsidies ever would.
Bristol
Now I've seen it all.
This sort of thing always strikes me as strange - here we have an unwed teenage mother going around spreading the benefits of Christian family values. I guess she - and presumably, the people who will shell out bucks to see her - thinks that God has forgiven her transgressions.
If she can actually make that kind of money, more power to her. But really, anyone who would pay to see her speak must be brain dead.
UPDATE:
Another hypocrite: Here is a video of Rep. Souder of Indiana, who has just resigned because of an affair with a legislative aide. In it, he states his strong position on abstinence education and discredits its opponents. The irony of it all is that apparently the "interviewer" in the video is the legislative aide with whom he had the affair!
You can't make this stuff up.
This sort of thing always strikes me as strange - here we have an unwed teenage mother going around spreading the benefits of Christian family values. I guess she - and presumably, the people who will shell out bucks to see her - thinks that God has forgiven her transgressions.
If she can actually make that kind of money, more power to her. But really, anyone who would pay to see her speak must be brain dead.
UPDATE:
Another hypocrite: Here is a video of Rep. Souder of Indiana, who has just resigned because of an affair with a legislative aide. In it, he states his strong position on abstinence education and discredits its opponents. The irony of it all is that apparently the "interviewer" in the video is the legislative aide with whom he had the affair!
You can't make this stuff up.
Quote of the Day
Wow, has it really been two weeks since my last post? Been really busy with lots of stuff, but still that's too long. Anyway, here is today's quote of the day:
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies."- Thomas Jefferson
04 May 2010
Astronomy Pic of the Day
Here is the description of the above picture, which was posted on the NASA website on June 16, 2008:
Inside the Coma Cluster of Galaxies: Almost every object in the above photograph is a galaxy. The Coma Cluster of Galaxies pictured above is one of the densest clusters known - it contains thousands ofgalaxies. Each of these galaxies houses billions of stars - just as our own Milky Way Galaxy does. Although nearby when compared to most other clusters, light from the Coma Cluster still takes hundreds of millions of years to reach us. In fact, the Coma Cluster is so big it takes light millions of years just to go from one side to the other! The above mosaic of images of a small portion of Coma was taken in unprecedented detail by the Hubble Space Telescope to investigate how galaxies in rich clusters form and evolve. Most galaxies in Coma and other clusters are ellipticals, although some imaged here are clearly spirals. The spiral galaxy on the upper left of the above image can also be found as one of the bluer galaxies on the upper left of this wider field image. In the background thousands of unrelated galaxies are visible far across the universe.
Harvard Emailer
I have a lot to say about this situation. Just not the time to write it right now - so expect something soon.
Can the Consumer Keep It Up?
This is from an email alert I received this morning from Roubini Global Economics (I am actually not a full subscriber, so I can't provide a link to the article):
I think the answer is probably no.
Umm, let's see:Can U.S. Consumers Maintain Spending Amid Sluggish Income?
Personal income grew 0.3% m/m in March, rising US$36 billion, after growing 0.1% m/m in February, according to the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income in March rose US$4.3 billion, or less than 0.1% m/m, and real disposable income rose 0.2% m/m after rising less than 0.1% m/m in February. The gain in income was driven by higher personal current transfer receipts, which jumped 1.1% m/m in March, boosted by emergency unemployment insurance compensation payments, after rising 0.3% in February. Interest and dividend income on assets continued to put downward pressure on personal income for the third consecutive month in March, down 0.5% m/m, following 0.5% contractions in January and February. Proprietors' income rose 0.3% after falling for two consecutive months. Income from wages and salaries remained weak in March, rising 0.2% m/m after a 0.1% gain in February. While U.S. consumer spending has shown strength in early 2010, the question remains whether the strength is sustainable given that it was achieved by a fall in the savings rate as income from wages and salaries and income on assets weakened in Q1 2010.
- Personal bankruptcy filings are up 15% over last year.
- Home mortgage foreclosures are at an all-time high.
- People continue to lose their jobs at a pace 50% higher than when the recession began.
- Unemployment benefits are running out for millions of unemployed workers.
I think the answer is probably no.
The Times Square Incident
Forgive me if I'm a little late to this one - I've been offline the last few days. So in this post and the two or three additional ones to follow I'll be catching up on a few things that caught my eye during my down time.
They caught the Times Square bomb suspect. As David Neiwert put it, "How about that law enforcement approach to terrorism?"
As people close to me know, I was at my desk at the World Financial Center when the planes hit the WTC across the street on 9/11. And I remember, 18 months later, that the largest protests against the Iraq war were in NYC. At the time I was not alone in being extremely angry at our government using the tragedy that occurred in our City to start a war against a country that clearly was no threat to the United States and had nothing to do with the attacks. I felt like we were being exploited - and to some extent I still do. New Yorkers know how to deal with these incidents better than anyone. If New Yorkers (other than Rudy Giuliani) had been in charge instead of those crazy Texas oil men, the world today would look a lot different.
Still, I'm proud of the way New Yorkers reacted to it then - and now. From the National Security Network:
They caught the Times Square bomb suspect. As David Neiwert put it, "How about that law enforcement approach to terrorism?"
As people close to me know, I was at my desk at the World Financial Center when the planes hit the WTC across the street on 9/11. And I remember, 18 months later, that the largest protests against the Iraq war were in NYC. At the time I was not alone in being extremely angry at our government using the tragedy that occurred in our City to start a war against a country that clearly was no threat to the United States and had nothing to do with the attacks. I felt like we were being exploited - and to some extent I still do. New Yorkers know how to deal with these incidents better than anyone. If New Yorkers (other than Rudy Giuliani) had been in charge instead of those crazy Texas oil men, the world today would look a lot different.
Still, I'm proud of the way New Yorkers reacted to it then - and now. From the National Security Network:
New Yorkers demonstrate resilience, refuse to give in to fear. During and after the bomb scare this weekend, New York City residents showed why awareness and resolve are the best means for defusing terrorist threats. The Associated Press reported on the NYC street vendor who calmly alerted police of the suspected vehicle: "Duane Jackson, a 58-year-old handbag vendor from Buchanan, N.Y., said he noticed the car and wondered who had left it there in a no-standing zone. Jackson said he looked in the car and saw keys in the ignition with 19 or 20 keys on a ring. He said he alerted a passing mounted police officer." Following the scare, New York City officials were keen not to raise fears unnecessarily by indulging in speculation about the thwarted attack.
The next morning, it was clear that New Yorkers and visitors alike would not be intimidated by the evening's drama. The Washington Post reported: "...it was a testament to the national resilience that Times Square was packed again Sunday morning, just a few hours after the vehicle was disarmed and removed. The only visible signs of the close call the night before were the scores of police officers on the scene, including the white Technical Assistance Response Unit vans surveying the hours of video surveillance recordings from the cameras that are a ubiquitous staple of New York's post-Sept. 11 life." After alerting the police, Jackson didn't make it home till 5 a.m., but according to the Post, he "was back on his corner by 8:30 a.m." "This is kind of the belly of the beast or whatever," said Jackson, "[b]ut I'm just out here showing my colors." In a piece for Foreign Affairs in 2008, Steve Flynn, now President of the Center for National Policy, noted: "Resilience has historically been one of the United States' great national strengths...A climate of fear and a sense of powerlessness caused by the threats of terrorism and natural disasters are undermining American ideals and fueling political demagoguery. Rebuilding the resilience of American society is the way to reverse this and respond to today's challenges." [AP, 5/2/10. Washington Post, 5/3/10. Steve Flynn, via Foreign Affairs, March/April 2008 ]
If America overreacts-as the Cheney crowd advocates -terrorists are successful. Editor of Newsweek International and Washington Post Columnist Fareed Zakaria writes that "The purpose of terrorism is to provoke an overreaction. Its real aim is not to kill the hundreds of people directly targeted but to sow fear in the rest of the population. Terrorism is an unusual military tactic in that it depends on the response of the onlookers. If we are not terrorized, then the attack didn't work." Similarly, Marc Lynch, senior fellow at CNAS and professor at George Washington University, explains that an "overreaction" to terrorism attempts plays "right into the hands of a terrorist group." The same is true for an individual.
Yet, extreme conservatives are already using this incident for political ends, building on a regrettable track record of overreaction and hyper-partisanship that denigrates our police and military and actually makes us more vulnerable. For example, The Heritage Foundation's Morning Bell responded to the event in Times Square saying: "Unfortunately this Congress and this President have repeatedly prioritized politics over security. Instead of providing stability and confidence in the intelligence community by seeking long-term renewal of key investigatory authorities authorized under the USA Patriot Act, President Obama has settled for a six-month extension tacked on to the Defense appropriations bill."
And from James Fallows:
These remarks build on past statements of Former Vice President Dick Cheney, Liz Cheney and Bill Kristol's organization, Keep America Safe, and others who have denigrated the FBI, military leadership, Justice Department prosecutors and police in their effort to discredit the Obama administration's policies. [Fareed Zakaria, 1/11/10. Marc Lynch, 1/2/10. Heritage Foundation, 5/3/10. Washington Independent, 4/14/10. NY Times, 4/14/10. Politico,3/8/10. Politico, 3/7/10. Washington Post, 2/19/10. Dick Cheney, via the Washington Times, 12/18/10. Washington Post, 3/4/10]
The point of terrorism is not to "destroy." It is to terrify. And for eight and a half years now, the dominant federal government response to terrorist threats and attacks has been to magnify their harm by increasing a mood of fear and intimidation. That is the real case against the ludicrous "orange threat level" announcements we hear every three minutes at the airport. It's not just that they're pointless, uninformative, and insulting to our collective intelligence; it's that their larger effect is to make people feel frightened rather than brave.
I won't go into the arguments about whether creation of an ever-threatened public mood is deliberate, or what interests it serves. I'll just say: it works against larger American interests (as argued here), and New York in these past two days has shown the alternative. That is nothing more than: being alert, but living your life and not skulking around terrified. I hate to say that when people act fearful, "the terrorists win," but it's true.
After the jump, quotes from a National Security Network posting today that lays out the importance of being resilient, as New Yorkers in general are doing now. I am anything but a Gothamite in spirit. "Nice place to visit" is about as far as I'll go. But today I say: I Heart NY!
Quote of the Day
My mother has encouraged me to begin this again. When I was in college, I got into the habit of taping a "Quote of the Day" to my dormroom door for passersby to see - "posting" in the pre-internet age. She wonders why I don't do it now, and since I don't have a good answer, I guess I should start again. Here is today's QOTD:
With or without religion, you would have good people doing good things and evil people doing evil things. But for good people to do evil things, that takes religion.
-- Steven Weinberg
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